What’s the forensic marketplace worth?
“A person's worth is measured by the worth of what he values.” ― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations
If you ever wondered what the forensic marketplace was worth (I have, obviously, and apparently I also have that kind of time), you’re not alone. Market value is the price an asset would fetch in the marketplace, or the value that the investment community gives to a particular equity or business. Market values are dynamic in nature because they depend on an assortment of factors, from physical operating conditions to economic climate to the dynamics of demand and supply.
Companies are more than willing to sell you report after report detailing what they think the market is worth and how much it will grow. As a numbers devotee, I am a tad suspect about some of the statements out there. For example,
The global forensic technology market size was valued at USD 4.30 billion in 2021 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% from 2022 to 2030.
The global forensic technology market was USD 12.9 Billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 27.34 Billion in 2032, and register a rapid revenue CAGR of 8.7% during the forecast period.
The global forensic technology market was valued at USD 14.78 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 41.92 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 12.28% from 2022 to 2030.
The global forensics technology market was valued at $15.2 billion in 2020, and is projected to reach $44.3 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 11.2% from 2021 to 2030.
The global forensic technologies market size reached US$ 19.2 Billion in 2022… the market to reach US$ 36.8 Billion by 2028, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% during 2023-2028.
The Global Forensic Technology Market was valued at USD 19.72 Billion in 2019 and is forecasted to reach USD 52.04 Billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 12.9%.
The global market for forensics technology is estimated to increase from $20.9 billion in 2022 to reach $42.1 billion by 2027, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0% from 2022 through 2027.
The global market for Forensic Technologies and Services estimated at US$24.3 Billion in the year 2022, is projected to reach a revised size of US$61.6 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.3% over the analysis period 2022-2030.
Let’s assemble those numbers, shall we?
So, the forensic technologies marketplace is valued at anywhere between around 4 and 24 billion US dollars. That range seems a bit…wide, doesn’t it? An estimate that is possibly off by USD 20 billion? Woof. Estimating out seven or more years, I can understand how the estimate range might get a bit hairy but…USD 34 billion? At least the estimated growth rate seems to be reasonable at 8 to 12 percent. Nevertheless, some of the data offered in these reports appears to be uncomfortably linear.
I wish that was my retirement fund return rate.
Anyway, it is interesting how some of these companies define “forensic technologies.” They run the gamut from what one could generally find in a forensic laboratory but also range far and wide to include CCTV, facial recognition and other biometrics, cyber security, network threat detection, and even forensic accounting. This hodgepodge of additions necessarily broadens the estimates and is, at least in part, the reason for some of the wild numbers.
I think it would be very difficult for a business to determine whether they should jump in the forensic market or not based on these very, very big numbers. As anyone who either has sold technology to a forensic service provider or has been a forensic service provider trying to purchase technology knows, the real numbers are much smaller, less predictable, and more fraught in the spending.